Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 15.062302 18.325993 21.943061 26.223809 31.125486 36.536742 42.935249
2025-11-02 10.086695 14.214863 19.296067 25.898434 34.131448 43.938260 56.371906
2025-11-09 7.488702 11.900348 17.801009 26.027372 36.935421 50.630706 68.823208
2025-11-16 5.699947 10.112960 16.469964 25.883797 39.017433 56.218898 79.918783
2025-11-23 4.288228 8.490068 14.994099 25.184196 40.070861 60.309865 89.089572
2025-11-30 3.572519 7.771934 14.675984 25.998947 43.153525 67.158916 102.123859
2025-12-07 2.794517 6.746779 13.680962 25.610879 44.369627 71.390864 111.693312
2025-12-14 2.289050 6.089589 13.163361 25.858367 46.470628 76.899279 123.192991
2025-12-21 1.699539 5.094168 11.875229 24.656453 46.177897 78.830471 129.604462
2025-12-28 1.442633 4.744664 11.703555 25.302098 48.808640 85.172955 142.591772
2026-01-04 1.197039 4.347245 11.367276 25.598432 50.852323 90.676197 154.506363
2026-01-11 1.007812 4.032429 11.140893 26.052312 53.156082 96.644369 167.289100
2026-01-18 0.851225 3.775495 11.037652 26.807716 56.165593 104.081300 182.943989
2026-01-25 0.652588 3.313431 10.401539 26.467828 57.259843 108.557218 194.311950
2026-02-01 0.518814 2.995118 10.030244 26.598396 59.171651 114.406985 207.986063
2026-02-08 0.400662 2.665961 9.559395 26.452347 60.539234 119.383927 220.417763
2026-02-15 0.289688 2.287663 8.870838 25.740821 60.771824 122.435059 229.844388
2026-02-22 0.244631 2.174830 8.880353 26.569451 63.980010 130.646149 247.822759
2026-03-01 0.179802 1.907600 8.383463 26.174784 64.763686 134.693372 259.119832
2026-03-08 0.141129 1.749378 8.174990 26.426483 66.828909 141.033475 274.354662
2026-03-15 0.090317 1.442416 7.403934 25.204032 65.807363 141.850104 280.402586
2026-03-22 0.073469 1.364930 7.385039 25.860737 68.695240 149.759399 298.566598
2026-03-29 0.056432 1.258873 7.236544 26.162125 70.844690 156.393788 314.733346